Effects of the energy transition on environmental impacts of cobalt supply: A prospective life cycle assessment study on future supply of cobalt

Cobalt is considered a key metal in the energy transition, and demand expected to increase substantially by 2050. This for an important part because of cobalt use (electric vehicle) batteries. study investigated environmental impacts production how these could change future. We modeled possible future developments supply chain using four variables: (v1) ore grade, (v2) primary market shares, (v3) secondary (v4) transition. These variables are driven two metal-demand scenarios, which we derived from scenarios shared socioeconomic pathways, “business as usual” (BAU) “sustainable development” (SD) scenario. estimated 2050 under prospective life cycle assessment. found that likely strongly dependent on recycling share overall The results showed BAU scenario, climate per unit 9% compared 2010, while they decreased 28% SD comes at trade-off other like human toxicity, scenario (112% increase) (71% increase). Furthermore, transition offset most induced near doubling between scenarios.